Update: 99.7% of movement is now short term. Wall Street plays games with BTC while Tourists get shaken out.

Anyone who’s been following my posts this week can see this shifting in real time as we approach an inflection point. Put simply: once lower prices start attracting more buyers than sellers (shaken coins dry up), fabricating these dips stops working. That day is getting close.

For context: 90 days ago, volume from coins aged 1.5+ years was ~1,227% higher than it is now. Those older coins are going increasingly silent.

They can’t hide this in on-chain data (the only real supply), but they’d rather you didn’t look… which is why the narrative is, “all the big players are just in the short-term paper markets now.” That’s false.

• You can’t pretend large holders (cold storage) are dumping when their coins aren’t moving.
• Volume is increasingly concentrated in the <1.5 year cohort (ETFs / recent buyers). ETFs themselves hold only ~6–7% of total supply, yet they account for most of the visible volume... algos pushing the same coins back and forth to make it look like capitulation.
• Low liquidity allows this kind of manipulation up to a point. Beyond that, it coils the spring. The reflexive move when it unwinds will be extreme.

Long-term holders are barely moving.
This isn’t “OGs dumping,” it’s short-term tourists getting shaken out while Wall Street plays games with paper BTC.

Knowledge is power.