How Bitcoin turned its “strongest month” into its worst in 7 years...

Bitcoin is having one of its worst Novembers since the 2018 bear market and here’s why it’s happening.

So far this month, Bitcoin is down roughly 17–20%, trading around the $90–92k range. That’s pretty close to the losses from November 2019, when BTC dropped about 17–18%. The worst November on record was back in 2018, with a brutal ~36% crash in the middle of that bear market.

Historically, November has actually been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with average returns around 40% in past cycles, so this kind of red November is a big break from the usual pattern. One major structural change this time around is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finally launched in January 2024, which pulled a lot of institutional money directly into BTC and may have shifted the timing of the typical post-halving “euphoria” phase.

Since those ETFs went live, institutions and large funds have played a much bigger role in price action, and a lot of analysts think that’s changed the rhythm of this cycle. Instead of the classic script where October and November often rip higher, this year October already closed slightly red and November is now deeply negative despite that historically bullish seasonality.

Another huge factor has been leverage getting nuked. A ton of traders were running oversized long positions with borrowed money, and when the October and November sell-offs hit, billions of dollars in longs were force-liquidated. That cascade of liquidations amplified the downside and helped drive BTC from an all-time high around $126k in October down into the low $80ks at the worst point of this drawdown.

Some analysts actually see this “flush” as a necessary cleansing process. It shakes out over-leveraged players and weak hands, kills off some of the froth, and can set up a healthier base for the next leg up once the market digests all the forced selling.

One interesting pattern from the last decade: every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also finished red. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but if that pattern holds and you combine it with the usual post-halving correction, it wouldn’t be shocking if real recovery takes time and stretches well into 2026 rather than bouncing straight back in the next few weeks